Opinion: Wilders and the end of the euro

POSTED: 02/1/12 12:45 PM

In a couple of days the British economic research bureau Lombard Street Research will publish a report about the re-introduction of the Dutch guilder. The report was commissioned by the Freedom Party PVV. Observers expect that the report will blow up the eurozone within the next couple of months.
It remains to be seen whether this will really happen. Lombard is a known euro-critic. Its director Charles Dumas compared the eurozone a couple of weeks ago in London with a suicide pact.
According to Dumas, staying in the eurozone will cost taxpayers every year around €15 billion ($19.6 billion), while the tab for a country like Germany will be something like €60 billion ($78.5 billion).
And these are conservative estimates, Dumas added for good measure in an interview in the Dutch newspaper Algemeen Dagblad. He said that Greece and Portugal will have to leave the eurozone, and to expect that the Netherlands and Germany will leave in a hurry because if they don’t they will have to keep paying for the southern-European countries.
A return to the guilders is not going to be as expensive as the Central Plan Bureau wants people to believe, Dumas said, adding this intriguing one-liner: “It is like with religion: first they promise you heaven and if that does not work they threaten you with hell.”
Given these opinions of the Lombard-director, the outcome of the Wilders-report about a possible return to the guilder will not contain any surprises. The Freedom Party will make sure its report gets the media-attention it wants, and when the discussion erupts, it will be impossible for Germany to ignore it.
Observers note that the report will function as a catalyst that will blow up the powder keg. It could take a couple of months, but it will happen, the general opinion is.
With all this, we’ll go towards interesting times. Wilders may very well place a bomb under the current cabinet with his report, but given the current sentiment in the political polls, the Freedom Party could very well be putting itself at risk too.

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