Klotzbach and Gray predict calm 2014 hurricane season

POSTED: 06/8/14 11:55 PM

Hurricane researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray have some good news this season. They expect a relatively calm 2014 season with below average hurricane activity.

In their latest report, Klotzbach and Gray predict that the season will see 4 hurricanes, while the average over the past 29 years was 6.5. They foresee 10 named storms, 40 names storm days, 15 hurricane days and one major hurricane.

“The probability of a US major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 80 percent of the long-period average,” the researchers write in their report. They expect the net tropical cyclone activity to be 70 percent of the long-term average – a slight increase over their forecast in April.

Like the authorities in St. Maarten, Klotzbach and Gray have a warning for costal residents: “It only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. They need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

William Gray started the Tropical Meteorological Project at Colorado State University 31 years ago. Philip Klotzbach joined the project in 2000 and he is currently working as a research scientist in the department of Atmospheric Science. Klotzbach designed the United Stated Landfalling Hurricane Probability webpage. Since its inception on June 1, 2004, the page received more than 500,000 hits.

 

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