Editorial: Statistical chance (hurricanes)

POSTED: 06/8/14 11:54 PM

Hurricane researchers Phil Klotzbach and William Gray have delivered their predictions for the 2014 hurricane season. Gray started his Tropical Meteorological project at Colorado State University three decades ago and there is no doubt that the researchers have collected a lot of data over the years that allows them to speak with some authority about the storms we fear most.

But predicting hurricanes are also a bit like predicting the lotto, be it that Klotzbach and Gray have a lot more information at their disposal to give their projections an aura of respectability.

The researchers remain realistic though. Pretty projections aside, it still takes just one formidable hurricane to turn a decent place into a complete mess.

Combined with that odd research suggesting that hurricanes with a woman’s name are deadlier than super storms with a man’s name, it cannot be emphasized enough that our community must not become complacent, just because the major hurricanes have passed us by in recent years and because it looks like we are going to get a free pass again this season.

The longer something does not happen, the statistical chance that it will happen comes closer every year. Therefore, be prepared, because real hurricanes are no joke.

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